Soybeans - Just My Opinion

March Soybeans expired one half cent higher ($8.89 ), July closed 2.5 cents lower ($9.12.25) & Nov 3 cents lower ($9.32.75)

March Soybean Meal expired $1.6 higher ($301.8), July closed $1.0 higher ($309.7) & Dec $0.7 higher ($316.1)

March Soybean Oil expired 29 pts lower ($29.40), July closed 36 pts lower ($29.89) & Dec 37 pts lower ($30.59)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales 1.911 M T. old crop vs. 1.200-1.900 M T. expected 3.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales 226.0 K T. old crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected 0.1 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales 14.0 K T. old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected no new crop vs. none expected

On the surface the soybean export sales number looked impressive but it was mostly expected. The bigger issue to the soybean market today was rhetoric out of Washington suggesting the possibility of a Chinese/US trade deal wont happen any sooner than late April if it happens at all. It seems the powers on high have been told that if you state anything positive about the trade talks you have to mention a disclaimer that it may not happen at all. This is very similar to what brokers have to say when promoting a trade; potential rewards vs. potential risks. The bottomline is that the longer it takes to make a deal the window closes on possible old crop business.

The interior river soybean basis is showing better postings vs. Wednesday. The processor basis is steady with a slightly firmer undertone. The Gulf basis reads steady to a bit better. Soybean spreads ran mostly steady upfront; old crop/new crop a shade better. The interior meal basis runs mostly unchanged while the export market is a touch better. Meal spreads saw slight improvement out to the new crop. Once again logistical problems continue to hamper the flow of product to export points.

The recent few days of price action in the soybean market resembles an upflag within the immediate downtrend. The meal price action is not too dissimilar. Bean oil looks like it is ready to resume its liquidation mode after 3-4 days of trying to consolidate. SA is in great shape; Brazil is half way done with harvest and Argentina is showing few if any major problems. Without Chinese business sooner vs. later Im not sure what keeps the soybean complex alive.

Daily Support & Resistance for 03/15

May Soybeans: $8.90 - $9.05

May Soybean Meal: $302.0 308.5

May Soybean Oil: $29.00 - $30.00


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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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