US China Trade Talks Delayed


Stock index futures were under pressure in the overnight trade on news that the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been delayed to at least April. The two heads of state were initially expected to meet in late March.

Initial jobless claims increased 6,000 to 229,000 in the week ended March 9. Economists had forecast 224,000 new applications for jobless benefits last week.

Prices of goods imported into the U.S. moved up in February. Import prices rose 0.6% in February from the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase from January.

Stock index futures rebounded and traded higher on limited news.

Since the lows were made in late December, stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest, which should be viewed as a sign of long term strength.


After four days of lower prices, the U.S. dollar rebounded. However, gains are likely to be limited, as financial futures markets are showing the Federal Open Market Committee may be moving toward accommodation this year.

German inflation remained stable in February, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The annual inflation rate was 1.7%, which was the same as in January and in December 2018.

The U.K. Parliament ruled out a no-deal Brexit. Lawmakers will vote on whether to extend the Brexit deadline until after March 29. Market participants are expecting an extension.


Financial futures markets are predicting a 79% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year. There is a 21% chance for a 25 basis point decline in 2019 and virtually no chance of a rate increase.

Currently, futures are caught between the bullish influence of a weakening global economy and the bearish influence of optimism for a U.S.-China trade agreement.

A U.S.-China trade deal, or strong hint of one, would be a catalyst to take futures lower.


June 19S&P 500

Support 2809.00 Resistance 2826.00

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 95.900 Resistance 96.310

June 19Euro Currency

Support 1.13810 Resistance 1.14360

June 19Japanese Yen

Support .90080 Resistance .90710

June 19Canadian Dollar

Support .75030 Resistance .75550

June 19Australian Dollar

Support .7046 Resistance .7121

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 145^20 Resistance 146^4

April 19Gold

Support 1291.0 Resistance 1312.0

May 19Copper

Support 2.8800 Resistance 2.9400

April 19 Crude Oil

Support 57.93 Resistance 58.88

For more extensive information on these markets contact Alan Bush at 312.242.7911 or via email at Thank you.

Would you like to open an account with us? Go to our interactive New Account application at Open An Account. It is fast, saves on postage and its green.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. Past results are not indicative of future results or performance. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.