Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed with losses of 3 to 6 3/4 cents in the front months. In general, spec types were going to cash and defensive instruments like gold while they assess the speed and severity of secondary impacts from the Wuhan virus outbreak. USDA announced a private export sale of new crop this morning, Japan purchased 111,252 MT of corn for 20/21 delivery. In the weekly Grain Inspections update from the week ending 01/23, USDA reported 668,559 MT of corn exports. That is 31.08% lower than the same week last year but was up 68.57% from the previous week. The Export Inspections report also indicated MYTD shipments total 10.151 MMT, which is 47.03% of last year’s pace. Of the weekly shipments, 39.68% went to Mexico, and 36.24% were to Colombia. Also in the report, China imported 122,258 MT of US sorghum on the week.

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.80 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.86 3/4, down 6 cents,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.92 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.91 3/4, down 4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures were lower again on Monday, by 4 3/4 to 5 cents lower. Soybean meal futures were $0.50/ton lower, and soy oil futures closed 50 points lower on weakness in diesel prices. The weekly Export Inspections report from the USDA this morning showed soybean shipments for the week ending 01/23 were 1.039 MMT. That is down 167,300 MT from last week, but is 9.97% more than the same week last year. MYTD soybean shipments are 25.215 MMT, compared to last year at this time with 20.485 MMT. The top destination for the week’s shipments was China, with 46.82% of the total. Japan was the destination for 10.4%, and both Spain and Saudi Arabia imported 71k MT of American soybeans on the week. The Indonesian B40 initiative is expected to eventually cause an increase in biodiesel consumption of palm oil by up to 40%. EU soybean imports on the MY to Jan 26 were 7.9 MMT; which is down 4% yr/yr. Soybean meal imports for the economic zone were up 8% yr/yr to 10.6 MMT, and EU palm oil imports were 18% lower yr/yr.

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.11, down 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.24 1/2, down 5 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $9.29 1/4, down 5 cents,

Mar 20 Soybean Meal closed at $297.80, down $0.50

Mar 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.52, down $0.50

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat was mixed today. Chicago SRW futures closed with the biggest drops, as futures were 3/4 to 2 1/4 cents lower on Monday. KC HRW futures were firm to mostly higher on Monday, albeit gains were limited to 3/4 cents per bushel. MPLS spring wheat was fractionally lower, with the deferred contracts posting gains of 1/4 to 1 1/4. USDA’s weekly export inspections report showed wheat exports were 223,994 MT for the week ending 01/23. That is down both yr/yr and wk/wk, by 39.07% and 56.62% respectively. MYTD shipments were at 16.224 MMT, which remained ahead of last year’s pace (14.384 MMT) at this time. Russian exports since June have lagged year ago despite larger reported production, as some rebuilding of tight ending stocks appears to be underway. FOB prices hit an 11 mo high on Jan 27. The EU wheat exports for the MY to Jan 26th were 15.94 MMT, which is 68.86% ahead of last year’s pace. EU new crop wheat will likely be smaller than 2019 by as much as 6-7 MMT, due to poor fall planting weather.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.72 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.86 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.47 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures dropped on Monday by full limits in April and June, the Feb futures also closed minus $2.60. The USDA COF report was seen as neutral, but did show a concentration of heavy weight placements. Concerns about consumption losses from the Wuhan virus were also traded. Nearby feeder cattle futures also closed with limit losses, the in delivery Jan futures finished a nickel higher. Live cattle futures and feeder futures will trade with expanded limits tomorrow. The CME Feeder Cattle index from 01/24 was 54 cents lower to $144.30. Afternoon boxed beef prices were lower, tightening the spread. Choice boxes were 90 cents lower, but Select boxes fell by 20 cents. USDA estimated Federally Inspected cattle slaughter at 122,000 head, which is even with last week and 3,000 head above last year.

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $122.250, down $2.600,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $121.300, down $3.000,

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $113.025, down $3.000,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.900, up $0.050

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.175, down $4.500

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.000, down $4.500

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures closed with limit losses in the April and May futures, and the hog market will trade with expanded limits on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was 24 cents higher on 01/23, at $61.53. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was $0.12 lower this afternoon, with primal cuts mixed. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was up triple digits to $53.86 in the afternoon. USDA Estimated FI hog slaughter on Monday at 498,000 head. Which is 87,000 head more than last week, and 26,000 head more than the same week last year

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $65.950, down $1.275,

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $70.450, down $3.000

May 20 Hogs closed at $76.975, down $3.000

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton came out of the weekend with losses, front month futures were down 26 to 71 points. The March futures came back from midday lows closing with a high and reduced the carry to May. China has officially extended the Chinese New Year holiday shut downs into mid-February and is limiting travel. Some schools will be closed until at least February 17. All of this is expected to hit GDP growth and consumption of consumer goods. The online cotton trading platform The Seam sold 29,749 bales last week, as Friday trades added 3,017 bales at an avg gross price of 60.39 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was back down 115 points and was 79.05 cents/lb for 01/24. The AWP for cotton is 61.29 cents/lb.

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 69.51, up 11 points,

May 20 Cotton closed at 69.94, down 26 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 70.68, down 44 points

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 69.68, down 71 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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